Venezuela’s Maduro trails in election polls. Would he give up power?

MEXICO CITY — 

Venezuela’s authoritarian president is about to face his biggest test yet, as uncertainty swirls around Sunday’s election and what Nicolás Maduro — a longtime U.S. adversary — might do to hold on to power.

Millions of Venezuelans will cast votes in what is widely seen as the nation’s most crucial election since Maduro took office as president 11 years ago after the death of his mentor, Hugo Chávez.

Maduro’s government already disqualified a rival who won the opposition primary. But the long-fractured opposition has largely regrouped around another candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat who has a double-digit lead in polling.

Many are skeptical that Maduro would give up power, and speculation is rampant about what the president would do if he loses.

“The degree of uncertainty around this election is higher than in any election in Venezuela in the last 25 years,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. “The fact is that, in spite of the playing field being stacked against the opposition, there are reasons for optimism with regard to the prospect for change.”

Here’s what to know about Venezuela’s election and why it matters to the United States:

What is behind Venezuela’s turmoil?

Economic woes and political upheaval have sent millions of Venezuelans fleeing their homeland, and hundreds of thousands have made their way to the United States.

Venezuela, home to the world’s largest petroleum reserves, was long one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America — though deep divisions between rich and poor were a source of instability.

After Chávez, a former military officer, was elected president in 1998, he embraced Cuba’s Fidel Castro and later called President George W. Bush “the devil “ during a United Nations speech.

Chavez’s populist policies helped reduce poverty and inequality, but critics say his government neglected a dilapidated petroleum infrastructure, scared off investors, sent the country into deep debt and edged Venezuela toward authoritarianism.

Tumbling oil prices during the rule of his handpicked successor, Maduro, hastened an economic collapse that has led to the exodus of more than 7 million Venezuelans. Washington has largely blamed Maduro’s ineptitude, while Maduro blames U.S. sanctions targeting the oil industry and hypes somewhat improving economic results in the last few years.

Who is running and who is banned?

Maduro, 61, is seeking his third term as the ideological heir of Chávez. Supporters say Maduro has continued Chávez’s legacy of helping the poor while standing up to U.S. “imperialism.”

Critics call Maduro a dictatorial and corrupt strongman who has rigged elections, jailed opponents and cratered the economy. The International Criminal Court is investigating allegations of crimes against humanity by Maduro’s security forces in a 2017 crackdown against protests.

González, 74, is a former ambassador who emerged after the government disqualified former lawmaker María Corina Machado. Called the “Iron Lady,” Machado won the opposition primary by a landslide but was banned from the presidential ballot through what she has called “rigged judicial procedures.” She now backs González.

Colleagues call González, who was little known before his presidential run, a low-key consensus builder. He has vowed a return to prosperity and democratic norms.

There are more candidates on the ballot, but they have little support. A simple majority of votes decides the winner, who would take office in January 2025 for a six-year term.

No boycott this time

The opposition’s decision to run in this year’s election — despite long odds against the Maduro machine — represents a stark departure from the last vote in 2018, which the United States and many other countries called a sham. The opposition largely boycotted that election in a move encouraged by the Trump administration, which had hinted at a “military option” in Venezuela.

Amid massive opposition protests in 2019, the Trump White House recognized a Venezuelan lawmaker, Juan Guaidó, as the country’s “interim” president and declared Maduro’s leadership “illegitimate.” The Trump administration later stepped up sanctions and indicted Maduro and top lieutenants on “narco-terrorism” and other charges. But Maduro cut diplomatic ties with Washington and remained in office. Guaidó eventually fled into exile in Florida.

“The opposition has learned from its mistake,” Ramsey said. “The solution to Venezuela’s crisis isn’t going to come from abroad. It’s going to come as a result of complex negotiations and domestic pressure.”

Is the fix in?

No matter the outcome, analysts say, Maduro is likely to claim victory. But how far would he take that assertion and who would back him are key questions. Regional leaders, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have called on Maduro to respect the results of the balloting.

The opposition has assembled teams of monitors on the lookout for vote tampering and other irregularities. The U.S.-based Carter Center and the United Nations plan to have small number of observers in place. The government in Caracas blocked a European Union delegation from coming.

Maduro’s legitimacy could be tested if opponents can show that the election was fraudulent. And evidence of widespread cheating could prompt a new round of street protests.

“For insiders and his government, it’s very important for Maduro to show that he is powerful enough to win an election, and to actually mobilize support,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Even if he wins cleanly, however unlikely, experts say, Maduro will probably be forced into concessions toward a newly energized opposition. His government is desperate for relief from U.S. sanctions and for broader acceptance on the global stage.

An opposition victory — if recognized by electoral authorities who are mostly Maduro loyalists— would present its own set of challenges. A new government-elect would probably enter talks with Maduro on how to achieve a peaceful transition. There is also uncertainty about what role Machado — the ex-lawmaker credited with galvanizing the opposition — would play in a González-led administration.

And a major question is whether the Venezuelan military — long Maduro’s staunchest ally — would continue to back the president if electoral results clearly show him defeated.

“So much will hinge on the military, and it’s super opaque,” Freeman said.

Some question whether Maduro could rely on his security apparatus to quash any street protests in the aftermath of a phony claim of victory — if the military would go along with a new round of repression in light of the international condemnation after it crushed large-scale demonstrations in 2014 and 2017.

“Elites in the military and ruling party would likely apply quiet pressure on Maduro, even as he declares victory, to demonstrate an openness to reforms and a willingness to signal an element of power-sharing with the opposition in his next term,” the Atlantic Council predicted in a report.

Why the election matters for the U.S.

Geopolitics, immigration and oil are all key points on Venezuela.

Washington would like to bring the country — and its vast oil reserves — back into the U.S. orbit and curtail the Caracas government’s increasingly friendly relations with Russia, China and Iran. Flipping Venezuela would be a major geopolitical coup for the Biden administration in an election year.

Migration to the United States from Venezuela has surged over the last decade. An improved economy or more open government could, in theory, dissuade some from leaving.

Also, Washington would like to be able to repatriate Venezuelans without legal status back to their homeland — something difficult to accomplish without formal diplomatic ties between the countries.

On the ground in Venezuela

Tensions in Venezuela are high going into Sunday’s election.

The bombastic Maduro has waged a provocative campaign, denigrating the opposition as “ultra-right fascists” and telling Venezuelans they face a choice between “barricades and peace, war or tranquility … hate or love, intolerance or understanding.”

The opposition has accused government thugs of targeting candidates and their supporters. The opposition says dozens of supporters have been arrested on trumped-up charges.

Recent weeks have seen the release of a fawning new biography of the president and a seven-part documentary series on state television lauding his life trajectory.

Maduro’s ruling United Socialist Party, experts say, has the core support of about one-third of the electorate, including multitudes on the public payroll and the many beneficiaries of subsidized housing, food and other social aid programs central to chavismo, as Chávez’s legacy is known.

“Thanks to Maduro I have my house, here in the center of the city, not on some hillside,” said Raúl Pérez, 28, a father of two and moto-taxi driver in Caracas, the capital. “My wife works in a ministry. If Maduro loses these elections, we lose everything.”

But high turnout, analysts say, should favor the opposition. And many Venezuelans seem eager to cast ballots.

“I think the people are going to come out to vote like never before: They are desperate, fed up,” said Antonio Manzano, 45, a teacher in Caracas. “We have to make clear that the people don’t want this government. … For Venezuela, the 28th of July is going to mark a ‘Before — and After.’ ”

Times special correspondent Mery Mogollón in Caracas contributed to this report.